Germany vs Portugal prediction 04.06.2025 | UEFA Nations League

• Competition: UEFA Nations League, Playoffs Semi-Finals, 1st Leg
• Date: Wednesday, 4th June, 2025
• Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CEST
• Venue: Allianz Arena (Munich)

Germany, one of the top national teams in the world, hasn't had much success in recent years since winning the World Cup in Brazil over a decade ago. To be fair, they looked good in their last EURO but were eventually eliminated by Spain in the Quarter-Finals after extra time in a super close match. In the UEFA Nations League, they continued with good performances and have easily reached the Semi-Finals. Ahead of their match against Portugal, Germany are the favorites to advance, with betting odds around 1.45.

Portugal are also considered one of the best national teams in Europe and the World and the current #7 on the FIFA World Ranking List. However, they failed to go past the Quarter-Finals in the last four major tournaments (EURO and WC combined). In the UEFA Nations League, they've had some solid results, but their performances have noticeably dipped in away games. That makes this first leg against an in-form Germany a real test.

Germany vs Portugal pick: Germany to win

Germany are unbeaten in their last 17 games across all competitions (in regular time), with a solid 65% win rate against some good opponents. They've been especially impressive at home, winning four of their last five matches. Also, in the Semi-Finals, they did great, beating Italy 5:4 on aggregate, but we believe the scoreline didn't reflect how dominant they actually were.

Portugal, on the other hand, have been a bit inconsistent. They've only won two of their last five matches, and most of those opponents aren't on Germany's level. Their away form is also a concern, as they haven't won in their last three road games against Scotland, Croatia, and Denmark.

In the previous h2h games, Germany dominated, winning five consecutive duels with a combined goal difference of 15:5. Considering the trend in the last h2h games, the difference in form, and Portugal's poor road performances, we expect Germany to win this match at Allianz Arena in Munich.